If you look closely at the chart you will see a divergence that's taken place over the last 6 weeks. While crude oil has made a new swing low the XLE has made a higher swing low. This in my opinion is bullish for XLE as it shows there are buyers supporting the market.
Right now XLE is up against a rather significant resistance level at 70 to 71 but given the recent divergence between crude oil and oil stocks I am leaning towards a significant breakout to the upside for XLE.
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